ROADSHOWS: Crypto Market Outlook - Markus Thielen /10x Research   •   London   12 - 13 Aug 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company & Sector Research

Europe

Targeted shorts drive outperformance

Vision has initiated 5 new European short positions YTD across capital goods, autos, healthcare and consumer staples. The average market cap of these shorts exceeded $10bn, with the mean for average daily $ volume traded exceeding $35m. The team also closed 5 European shorts in 2025, generating alpha vs. the Stoxx 600 of 33%, 23%, 20%, 5% and 4% with an average holding period of ~13 months. On the US side, short ideas include Inspire Medical Systems, which is down ~40% this week after an 80% cut to FY25 EPS guidance.


Consumer Discretionary

Laurent Mommeja (Senior Officer) bought 1,000 shares at €2,088 on Aug 4th, spending €2.1m. This is his fourth purchase >€1m. His other large buys (May 17 at €454, Dec 20 at €826 and Jun 22 at €970) have all been well-timed. It is interesting to see another large purchase from him at over twice the price he paid 3 years ago. The stock has declined post-H1 results and Mommeja appears to be taking advantage of the pullback. Smart Insider has trading history on him back to Oct 10 and their prior +1 ranks (highest conviction rating) in Dec 20 and Jun 22 were both driven by his purchases.


Consumer Discretionary

Forensic Alpha maintains its highest risk rating on STLAM, citing the growing financialisation of the company (both on- and off-balance sheet) which increasingly appears to be driving its fundamentals. The rapid growth in capital deployment is particularly striking given it is occurring when overall auto shipments are down. Sales to related-party JVs surged 50% Y/Y to €7bn (>10% of total sales), while receivables from JVs rose €1bn over 6 months to €3.2bn. STLAM significantly expanded its Financial Services balance sheet, with €4.4bn in H1 outflows (including €2.8bn on leased vehicle purchases and €1.7bn on dealer/retail financing) excluded from its preferred “industrial FCF” metric, which was already negative €3bn. Without an improvement in macro conditions, STLAM’s growing financial risk may force management to consider more drastic restructuring measures.


Industrials

Robert Crimes updates his model forecasts and reiterates his Buy rating on AENA, citing its unique Spanish airport monopoly, strong FCF profile and value-accretive long-term expansion. H1 results support €2.0bn+ FCF in 2025E, growing at a 4.2% CAGR through 2050E, despite significant expansionary capex. AENA plans to expand theoretical capacity by +50% to 520m pax by 2050 (Madrid +60% to >110m pax, Barcelona +70% to >95m pax). Leverage is low (1.3x ND/EBITDA) and dividends are expected to grow 5.7% CAGR. With +2.4% annual traffic growth and rising intercontinental passenger mix, Robert sees 60% upside to his TP of €39.


Industrials

H1 revenue rose 35% (+17% organic) as ELIX notched 5 record revenue months in the 6-month period, with margins stable versus recent years. While management expects FY25 results to meet market expectations, analysts have nudged estimates higher. Willis Welby sees ELIX as an interesting cross between a quoted company and a partnership - combining a proven consulting growth model with disciplined, selective M&A. Momentum remains strong, yet despite a recent share price rebound, the implied to Y3 EBITM ratio is still only 34. Given this disconnect, they see potential for up to 70% upside from current levels.


North America

Communications

Craig Huber sees IPG as one of the most mispriced stocks in his coverage, with ~50% upside to his new $38 TP, based on the 0.344 Omnicom exchange ratio and a $111 TP for OMC. He has raised his 2025/26E adjusted EPS estimates by 12-13% on stronger margin expectations - now +100bps in 2025, driven by $300m in cost savings. IPG trades at just 8.2x 2026 EPS - a steep discount to the S&P 500. The OMC merger remains on track for 2H25 and is expected to yield $750m in cost synergies, which Craig believes will prove conservative. With OMC trading at just 6.2x pro forma 2027 FCF (including IPG), he sees a compelling entry point for long-term investors.


Consumer Discretionary

John Zolidis reiterates his bearish view on CAKE, warning that the multi-year tailwind from aggressive menu price hikes is ending. From 2023-2025, the company raised prices by over 20%, boosting restaurant-level margins to an 8-year high despite a ~5% decline in traffic. However, pricing is set to decelerate to 3.5% in 2H25 (vs. 4.0% in H1) and that slowdown doesn’t account for the rollout of new, lower-priced menu items. Meanwhile, non-core concepts continue to dilute margins. After reviewing Q2 results, which featured a 1.2% comp and 7% EPS growth (the slowest in 3 years), John sees little justification for the stock’s 30% rally over the past 3 months.


Consumer Staples

Scott Mushkin downgrades DG to Sell, citing widening price gaps with competitors, which threaten margins and volume share gains over the next 12-18 months. R5’s latest fieldwork shows a total basket premium of 9% vs. Walmart - well above the typical 3-7% range. Scott now sees pressure from WMT starting to impact the back half of 2025; while Amazon’s push to speed up delivery times in rural areas, coupled with its low pricing for everyday essentials also appears be gaining momentum. At the same time, Dollar Tree is making inroads into DG’s core markets. Finally, regulatory risks from SNAP eligibility changes and the MAHA movement targeting sugary foods are expected to negatively impact sales.


Healthcare

CEO Tom Polen’s leadership has damaged BDX’s culture and weakened long-term performance, according to Paragon's analysis which includes interviews with former senior executives, who worked with Polen for more than 51 years combined. Critics described him as an overconfident micromanager, too reliant on loyalists and resistant to course-correct when bold initiatives underperform. His emphasis on appearances and short-term results strained organisational culture, led to talent attrition and undercut long-term innovation. Under his tenure, BDX’s stock has declined 28%, destroying over 70% alpha. The group would be better served by a leader with stronger executional discipline and cultural stewardship.


Healthcare

BTN flags deteriorating financial quality despite headline beats. Receivables have surged, with DSOs breaking past 100 days (106.4 in Q2) - up 5 days sequentially and 20 days Y/Y. Sales growth previously stalled when DSOs hit 92. 1 DSO equals ~$12.7m in revenue and every 2-day increase adds ~1¢ in adjusted EPS. Despite a $51m YTD revenue beat, DXCM only raised FY25 guidance by $25m and cut its gross margin outlook from 64-65% to 62%. Operating margin guidance of 21% also looks aggressive (Q1: 13.8%, Q2: 19.2%). Finished goods inventory remains low at 25.8 days and DPOs have been stretched by 30 days over 2 years. While EPS is benefitting from buybacks, BTN questions if cash flow can sustain them.


Healthcare

A growing, cash-generative specialty physician group with limited downside risk. MD offers a nationwide focus on neonatal and paediatric care, and stands to benefit from rising preterm birth rates and increasing demand for complex infant care. Despite these defensive and attractive characteristics, MD trades at just 8x P/E and 7x EV/EBITDA - over a 50% discount to the S&P 500. In recent years, private equity buyers have paid a median 13x EV-to-EBITDA for similar assets. Even a modest multiple re-rating could unlock significant upside - each 1x EV-to-EBITDA multiple improvement would equate to ~$2.75 boost in MD’s share price.


Industrials

ATRL shares have soared ~325% over the past 3 years, driven by a sixfold jump in its nuclear backlog. In his latest report, Dimitry Khmelnitsky assesses the group's long term nuclear growth prospects. He sees management’s $15bn CANDU refurbishment revenue forecast through 2050 as realistic and believes ATRL’s exposure to both large reactors and SMRs will provide significant growth opportunities. However, on new builds, Dimitry estimates a more modest opportunity of $650m-$1.9bn in average annual revenue and $90m-$270m in annualised adjusted EBITDA - well below management’s ~$900m EBITDA projection. Political resistance, high transition costs and global competition are key constraints, with Canada representing the most viable growth potential.


Materials

Hamed Khorsand raises his price target on HWKN to $200 (from $160) following a strong Q1 beat and growing momentum across all 3 business segments. Water treatment is now the company’s largest division and the recent acquisition of WaterSurplus enables HWKN to cross-sell equipment alongside chemicals, with synergies expected to materialise in the coming quarters. The newly realigned Food & Health Sciences segment is also positioned for growth, supported by a broader product offering. Hamed lifts his FY26 EPS forecast to $4.60 and anticipates continued strength in FY27. With positive FCF, expanding gross margins and rising demand, HWKN has meaningful upside potential from current levels.


Data centre market outlook

Real Estate

Kolytics’ report, the first in a series on the data centre sector, examines how the landscape is evolving amid surging AI-driven demand, mounting infrastructure pressures and a shift in focus from compute capacity to power availability. As the AI revolution transitions from hype to application, investor attention is shifting from core performance to grid access as the primary constraint. While current market conditions remain favourable and landlords benefit from pricing power amid grid bottlenecks, elevated valuations leave limited room for execution missteps. Risk-adjusted opportunities remain attractive; however, the materialisation of substantial downside risks could swiftly reshape the outlook. REITs covered include Digital Realty, Equinix and Iron Mountain.


The security infrastructure enabling the AI revolution

Technology

Akamai and CyberArk are showing strong momentum in developer interest, according to AnteData’s coding activity data. Repositories related to the two companies’ software platforms are frequently forked and starred - clear signals of rising popularity and adoption among developers. This surge aligns with growing Google search interest and reflects their central role in securing the infrastructure that powers the AI boom. In general, AnteData’s coding activity shows that security companies focused on protecting communication layers - like AKAM, Cloudflare and CYBR - are outperforming those focused purely on asset protection, such as Tenable or CrowdStrike. Evidently, in this new wave of Machine-to-Machine communication, speed, security and connectivity matter more than ever.


Quantum computing primer unveils two new Buy ideas

Technology

Rosenblatt initiates coverage on D-Wave (Buy, $30 TP) and IonQ (Buy, $70 TP), identifying them as differentiated, high-conviction ideas in the rapidly expanding quantum computing market. QBTS offers unique exposure to quantum annealing - particularly suited for optimisation workloads - and is expected to grow revenues at a +66% CAGR from 2025-2030. IONQ, a leader in trapped-ion architectures, is positioned to exceed $1bn in revenue within the next few years, with significant upside from its product roadmap and ecosystem development. These initiations are framed by Rosenblatt’s comprehensive quantum computing primer, which outlines the core principles, architectures and commercialisation pathways shaping the industry’s next era and underpins the firm’s bullish stance on both names.


Australia

Materials

GMR maintains a Buy rating on NST following their KCGM site visit, reaffirming the mine’s Tier 1 status with a US$6.7bn NPV5 valuation. The A$1.5bn expansion remains the key near-term focus and risk, but appears on track for completion within 12 months. While the market remains concerned about lower near-term FCF and high capex (~A$500m/year), GMR sees KCGM as strategically critical, with meaningful upside from displacing low-grade stockpiles with higher-grade ore, improving mill throughput and ramping up the Fimiston underground. The mine’s long life, production growth potential (to 850-900koz by FY29) and exploration upside through high historical OVMs make it NST's crown jewel, but successful delivery in the near term remains crucial for realising that value.


Japan

Industrials

Asymmetric Advisors highlights Seika as a compelling, under-the-radar nuclear energy play. The company has undergone a multi-year business rationalisation, laying the groundwork for improved profitability and operational focus. A key milestone was Seika’s recent appointment as the primary MHI distributor for West Japan - a transition expected to double profits. Valuation remains attractive at <9x PER, 1.1x PBR and a 4.9% dividend yield, backed by ¥33bn in net cash and no analyst coverage. Nuclear momentum continues, with KEPCO reportedly planning Japan’s first new build since Fukushima. Seika also holds a strategic 11.6% stake in Tokyo Sangyo, creating potential for synergistic consolidation. Hikari Tsushin’s growing stake (>15%) further underscores upside potential.


Emerging Markets

Multinationals in China: Consumer caution persists

A year after the pro-growth signalling from Beijing, most consumer sector multinationals still report subdued household spending in China. Elevated household savings and low consumer confidence - echoed by both luxury and FMCG players - suggest that the recovery has yet to reach full momentum. Weakness is most apparent in discretionary categories, particularly luxury and F&B. Kering reported high-20% sales declines among Chinese consumers, while Unilever and AB InBev flagged weak foodservice volumes. Even Hermes conceded that momentum is lacking and noted a "wait-and-see" mindset, despite modest growth. Looking ahead, unless a shock-and-awe stimulus package arrives, 86Research expects a gradual, selective recovery rather than a broad consumption rebound.


Communications

Blue Lotus expects Tencent to beat 2Q25 revenue, IFRS operating profit and net income forecasts, supported by success in the extraction shooter genre, which has exploded in popularity within the Chinese market recently. Tencent’s Delta Force has surged from ~5m MAUs in Jan to 38m in July, making it the company’s 3rd largest game. Arena Breakout is also proving to be extremely popular. While both Tencent and NetEase have blockbuster titles in development, the former appears to be moving faster - likely due to its generative modelling strengths. With upside to valuation and near-term catalysts, Blue Lotus names Tencent as their Top Pick in the gaming sector.


Consumer Discretionary

Arete downgrades JD to Sell, slashing their FY25 EPS forecast from $4.00 to $2.30. JD has sharply scaled back food delivery subsidies, with per-order losses narrowing from ~RMB10 to ~RMB6 last month. As a result, daily delivery volumes have fallen from ~25m to ~12-15m. The incremental market created by JD in the food delivery sector will ultimately be divided up by Meituan and Alibaba as JD retreats. Arete estimates ~5% of JD’s GMV is at risk from SKU overlap with fast-delivery “insta-shopping” categories. Meanwhile, JD’s new initiatives show little traction: its travel business lacks scale, stablecoin plans face regulatory hurdles, while a potential €2.6bn Ceconomy deal brings operational risk. Arete also questions the relevance of JD’s micro-drama platform, which trails dominant rival ByteDance.


Macro Research

Developed Markets

ECB policy: Downward pressure on MRO rate to continue

Frank Shostak points out that so far this cycle the ECB has been a lot more aggressive in its loose stance, lowering policy rates by 235 basis points compared to the Fed which has only cut by 100 basis points. Frank examines the drivers of the ECB policy rate with reference to several key underlying variables which combine to influence policy: inflation and economic growth metrics. He constructs a composite variable which does a reasonable job of indicating trends and turning points in the Main Refinancing Operations (MRO) rate. Frank finds that there is likely to be continued downward pressure on the MRO rate until the last quarter of this year, after which this pressure dissipates and, possibly, reverses from mid-2026.


Global large cap expectations & estimates: Europe looks interesting

Tony Willis points out that there has not been much change in the median implied to Y3 EBITM ratio of their large cap coverage for a while now. Today it is 106.6. And that is still towards the top end of a range that Tony thinks of as fair value. But while he has not much to say about the sectoral splits, he does have some thoughts about the geographical ones. The ratio for the US part of their coverage is 112. The ratio for the Japanese part has moved up to 106. But the ratio for the European part has fallen back to 95. This is at the lower end of a range that Tony thinks of as fair value and is clearly interesting.


US monetary policy: The dovish case is building

Andreas Steno says that it came as a surprise to see Mary Daly - typically viewed as a fairly centrist voice on the FOMC - now openly backing the case for rate cuts, even hinting that three cuts are more likely than just one. The market has naturally leaned into this, pricing in a cumulative 58bps through the December meeting. But as we know, once a trend like this gets going, it tends to overshoot. With last week’s labour market revisions, it’s likely we’ll see a parade of doves in the coming weeks. While Andreas doesn't see the labour market as fundamentally weak, the combination of soft headline job numbers, negative revisions and a notable workforce outflow will likely be interpreted as weakness by policymakers - particularly given their institutional bias towards caution and reluctance to adjust model mechanics ex-ante. This inertia, while often justified, means developments like a shift from immigration inflow to outflow will take time to be fully recognised, thereby reinforcing the dovish case heading into the September meeting.


US immigration policies prompt decline in civilian labour force

For Carl Weinberg and Rubeela Farooqi, the most interesting part of the recent economic data releases was not the much-ballyhooed revision to the payrolls figures for May and June and the low number for July. Unlike some people, they understand that revisions cannot be anticipated or controlled. BLS reports that these numbers are extremely accurate with a standard error estimate of only 0.1% for payroll employment figures. Instead, what did grab the attention of Carl and Rubeela was the decline in the civilian labour force. It fell outright in July and slowed in the three previous months. This is new. Fed Chair Powell mentioned this in his recent press conference, citing it as a sign of weakness in the labour force. Job creation is slowing, but the unemployment rate has been holding steady because the labour force is contracting. Powell blamed new immigration policies, tightening up both undocumented and documented arrivals.


Markets at a crossroad as dollar recovery stalls

As highlighted in previous reports, Taha Bin Sohail notes that the US dollar was poised for a short-term recovery after overshooting to levels near its post-COVID lows. The 96.0 DXY level has consistently acted as a critical technical support, and recent market action confirmed its importance. Below this zone, the dollar risks sharp declines, while the 100.0 level remains the key upside resistance. In line with Taha’s projections, the DXY tested the upper bound but quickly retraced following the weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls (NFP), signalling that labour market concerns are now front and centre for investors. Technically and fundamentally, the DXY is trapped between 96.0 and 100.0. ABCG Research currently maintains a wait-and-see approach, with the next decisive move likely to depend on trade deal outcomes. A breakout in either direction will set the tone for the dollar’s trajectory into the next quarter.


UK recession risks are underestimated and rising

According to Julian Brigden, the co-founder and president of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners (MI2), the recent IMF warnings regarding the UK deficit are clear echoes of past crises. Given inflation and especially wage growth, Julian notes that the BoE’s gradualism is justifiable. However, Julian’s work suggests that recession risks are not only underestimated but also rising. He says that the combination of tight fiscal and loose monetary policy could be toxic for Sterling.


Maximum warfare, everywhere, all the time

"Maximum warfare, everywhere, all the time". This is how a member of the Trump administration has described their political strategy to the New York Times. Just because it's the summer doesn't mean the momentum will ease. If anything, a reality TV star President entering his ninth decade with a year until the mid-term elections will relish several weeks where he can further dominate the media cycle. According to Helen Thomas, the focus for the financial markets will be on the kerfuffle over data and the changing of the guard at the Fed. They are intimately linked. The topic for this year's Jackson Hole jamboree, which begins on Thursday 21st August, is "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy". And now, following huge revisions lower to the non farm payrolls numbers, and the Fed returning specifically to the topic of the jobs market, the stars would seem to be aligning for Powell to deliver the rate cut in September that Trump has been calling for.


Watch out for this retirement trap

President Trump’s executive order is opening the $12.5 trillion 401(k) market to private equity (PE) products long reserved for institutions, but those institutions are already pulling back. However, Robert Spivey notes that PE returns have dropped sharply as cheap debt dries up, deal demand weakens, and firms hold assets longer, making valuations opaque and fees high. Robert says such illiquid, complex investments clash with retail fiduciary standards and retirees’ need for transparency and liquidity. Instead of chasing potentially overstated PE performance, individual investors are better served focusing on mispriced public assets with clearer returns and compounding benefits.


Emerging Markets

Bangladesh exports surge in July

Bangladesh’s exports surged 25% YoY in July, reaching USD4.77bn (the highest in 32 months). Ready-made garment (RMG) exports accounted for USD3.96bn of the total, marking a 24.7% YoY increase. Meanwhile, gross foreign exchange reserves rose to USD30bn as of July 4; under IMF guidelines, this equates to USD24.97bn. On the political front, the Chief Adviser has announced that the interim government will formally request the Election Commission to schedule national elections for February, ahead of the Ramadan season.


China's services activity growth hits 14-month high

China’s Caixin Services PMI jumped to 52.6 in July (vs. 50.4 expected), marking the strongest expansion since May 2024 and fuelling hopes of a services-led recovery. Robust growth in domestic and foreign demand boosted job creation to a one-year high. However, cost pressures returned and the Composite PMI slipped slightly to 50.8 due to ongoing manufacturing weakness. John Fagan says that the data underscores China’s two-speed recovery and the need for more targeted policy support.


PBoC to focus on RMB internationalisation

Andrew Polk points out that China’s central bank (PBoC) doesn’t have any big monetary policy changes planned for the rest of the year. At a work conference held on 1st August, the PBoC indicated that monetary policy will be far less eventful than in the first six months of 2025. Regarding the RMB, the PBoC repeated that it would: maintain exchange rate flexibility; strengthen its guidance of market expectations; and guard against the exchange rate overshooting. What really stood out was the PBoC’s focus on advancing RMB internationalisation, including: accelerating the use of RMB in trade; making the RMB more appealing as a financing currency; and developing the liquidity of offshore RMB assets. Andrew says RMB internationalisation is a strategic priority to reduce China’s dollar dependence and embed the yuan more deeply in global trade and finance. As the dollar’s dominance comes into question, Chinese officials see a rare window of opportunity to push even harder.


Turkey: A fond requiem for the lira carry trade

Jonathan Anderson has been in the TRY carry trade for more than a year - and it has been a great year to be so. Since early 2024 the trade has been consistently and tremendously profitable for USD-funded positions. Jonathan says these gains were driven by the dramatic nature of Turkey's monetary policy regime change. The CBT embarked on "shock and awe" hikes in 2023-24, dismantling FX controls and restrictions, and unwinding its onerous liability positions... and has kept the course since then with surprisingly little interference from the president's office. But there has been less underlying macro adjustment. Money, credit and prices are now "stuck" in the 40% y/y range, real growth has slowed but not reversed, the external balance is still in meaningful deficit (and subject to oil price swings) and money/FX valuation gaps are widening. In Jonathan’s view this is a good time to take profits and leave.


Uruguay: Inflation dynamics keep improving

Marcos Buscaglia points out that the inflation dynamics keep improving in Uruguay. While the monetary policy committee lowered the monetary policy rate by 25bp to 9% in early July, the central bank (BCU) still sees the monetary policy stance as contractionary by 0.7pp (over 2.6% neutral rate and 4.9% inflation expectations). Moreover, the monetary policy report noted that provided inflation expectations remain anchored, there could be additional rate cuts in the pipeline. Indeed, inflation was negative in June, significantly below consensus. Headline CPI fell 0.09% mom (vs a 0.2% median of BCU survey) and inflation fell to 4.59% yoy (-45bps vs May). Marcos notes that the guidelines for wage negotiations were set with the 4.5% inflation target as the anchor – a positive development. GDP growth, while softening, remains supported by primary sectors and consumption.


MSCI emerging markets pullback in process

The EEM-US broke below its 20-day MA for the first time in over three months. Any potential pullback to major base support ($46) should be considered a buying opportunity. As discussed in Vermilion’s weekly Int’l Compass reports, EM countries that they are overweight include South Korea and Greece. Additionally, there continues to be several other countries that are bullish and/or worthy of overweights, including South Africa, Taiwan, Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, Vietnam, UAE and Pakistan. Turning to China, the Shanghai Composite displays a significant base breakout, and China has been a favourite country to add exposure to over the past month (July 3 Int’l Compass titled “China and Japan Breaking Out” and also July 22 Int’l Macro Vision). As long as base support holds on this pullback, David Nicoski remains bullish and he is monitoring China for a potential upgrade to overweight.


ESG

Beware of floods

Charles Hess observes that the US National Weather Service issued a record 3,040 flood warnings between January 1 and July 15 this year, more than any other similar period since the modern alert system was put in place in 1986. Meanwhile, the Steve Miller Band claim that they cancelled their entire 2025 North American concert tour because of the combination of extreme heat, unpredictable flooding, tornadoes, hurricanes and massive forest fires. Charles comments that this is further evidence that the climate crisis is not only worsening for risks to property but is also harming the fans of rock music. He feels this is now “getting serious!"


Commodities

Gold & silver prices have further upside with continuing volatility

In this presentation, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group provides a market update on gold, silver, platinum and palladium. He also points out why talk about the US Treasury ‘resetting’ the price of gold to $10,000, $18,000, or whatever, is divorced from market realities. Jeffrey breaks down why this 'concept' would not work, how real markets work, and why such a move would be financially destructive and practically unfeasible. He also looks at current investor behaviour, futures market positioning, and depository stock levels to explain why gold and silver prices remain elevated, and why investors should prepare for continued volatility. The video also addresses misconceptions around CPM's past recommendations, with medium-term data showing CPM's actual projections and how they have held up.
Click here to watch.


Russian oil: The price of peace in Ukraine?

Russia’s once-dominant position in the European gas market continues to unravel, with Gazprom’s pipeline exports to Europe now plummeting to levels not seen since the early 1970s. If current trends hold, Gazprom’s total gas exports to Europe could shrink to just 17 bcm for the year. However, James Burdass notes that there's been a concerted effort in Western-leaning media to portray Russia - and Gazprom in particular - as having run out of customers for its gas. In the short term, there's some truth to this: deliveries to Europe have fallen sharply, and even China appears hesitant, delaying progress on the Power of Siberia 2 project as it questions the long-term reliability of Russian supply. Nevertheless, the Power of Siberia pipeline is active and it's entirely foreseeable (even likely) in James’s view that the price of peace in Ukraine from a Russian perspective would be a gas contract for Europe.


Why smart money isn’t buying crypto stocks yet

Crypto stocks are unwinding sharply and some of the most hyped names are now down 30-50% from their highs. Markus Thielen says this isn’t just about short-term corrections - it’s about the deeper repricing of crypto’s equity narrative. Some names may still have room to fall, while others could be nearing high-conviction entry points. In June, Markus flagged that several crypto-related stocks were losing momentum, prompting his take-profit recommendation on Coinbase and warning that others could follow - notably Kakaopay, Metaplanet and Circle. Since then, the damage has been significant with all three names falling heavily. Valuations remain stretched - Circle still trades at a forward P/E of 153x, compared to 102x for Coinbase and 69x for Robinhood, leaving room for further downside. A 30% correction in Circle, or similarly in Kakaopay with its 128x P/E, would not be surprising.


US president’s long-awaited crypto report is released

The President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets has released the long-awaited cryptocurrency policy report, which outlined the Administration’s forthcoming priorities aimed at forwarding crypto innovation and cementing the US as the “crypto capital of the world”. It outlines a series of recommendations for legislators and regulators to follow, such as providing new tax provisions and enabling the trading of cryptocurrencies at the Federal level. Meanwhile, in response to requests from the White House to develop clearer guidelines for digital assets, the SEC launched “Project Crypto” following the release of the President’s crypto report. The initiative would implement the White House’s recommendations by developing a new regulatory framework which would outline whether a digital asset qualifies as a security as well as detailing the treatment of the token’s trading, custody and issuance.