ROADSHOWS: Fundamental Research on Greek Stocks - Dimitris Giannoulis /ResearchGreece   •   Paris   08 - 12 Sep 25       US & European Global Defense - Byron Callan /Capital Alpha Partners   •   London   09 - 11 Sep 25      

The EM Rebound: Reality, Risk, and Regional Opportunities

Emerging Advisors Group

Thu 03 Jul 2025 - 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT

Summary

Jon Anderson discussed how the recent EM rebound has been driven by cyclical factors such as a weaker dollar and steady global trade, rather than signalling the start of a structural bull market. He stressed that EM outperformance depends on strong export growth, which remains uneven, with China still weak and India lacking export momentum. He is tactically positive over the next 6–12 months, holding equity, FX and carry positions, but remains cautious beyond that. Regionally, he favours LATAM and South Africa for fixed income, Vietnam and Poland for structural growth, and sees potential in Malaysia and Korea, though the latter depends more on micro-level reform. He is sceptical on China’s long-term outlook and sees little sign of a multi-year EM boom unless global demand, especially from the US and Europe, remains strong.

Topics

Is the recent EM outperformance over the US equity market sustainable or is it another head fake?

Is China “back online” as both a strong economy and an investible market?

What are the risks to continued EM USD and LC denominated sovereign debt outperformance over DM sovereign debt?

Best country ideas by region in debt and equity over the remainder of 2025.