Summary

Jon Anderson discussed how the recent EM rebound has been driven by cyclical factors such as a weaker dollar and steady global trade, rather than signalling the start of a structural bull market. He stressed that EM outperformance depends on strong export growth, which remains uneven, with China still weak and India lacking export momentum. He is tactically positive over the next 6–12 months, holding equity, FX and carry positions, but remains cautious beyond that. Regionally, he favours LATAM and South Africa for fixed income, Vietnam and Poland for structural growth, and sees potential in Malaysia and Korea, though the latter depends more on micro-level reform. He is sceptical on China’s long-term outlook and sees little sign of a multi-year EM boom unless global demand, especially from the US and Europe, remains strong.

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