Summary

David Woo discussed the reasons behind Trump's unexpected trade concession to China, arguing it was a tactical retreat rather than a strategic shift. He suggested Trump was trying to avoid fighting China, Russia, Iran, and US fiscal hawks all at once. Woo sees rising geopolitical risk, particularly in Europe and the Middle East, and believes Trump faces growing domestic constraints, especially from fiscal conservatives in Congress. He expects US fiscal tightening ahead and sees opportunities in long five-year Treasuries, short euro-gold, and Brent spreads. He also warned that volatility could rise sharply by July.

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