EVENTS:   The State of US-China and Global Rebalancing - William Hess/PRC Macro & Song Gao/PRC Macro & Ming Wu/PRC Macro - 07 May 25     ROADSHOWS: US Retail, E-tail and Consumer Products Equity Research and Stock Picks - Scott Mushkin /R5 Capital /London   08 - 09 May 25       US Value Equity Ideas - Jonathan Boyar /Boyar Research /London   12 - 15 May 25       US Chemicals Equity Research and Stock Picks - Frank Mitsch /Fermium Research /London   14 - 15 May 25      

Could US Tariffs and Hoarding Lead The World to Run Out of Copper?

Astris Advisory Commodities

Tue 08 Apr 2025 - 14:30 / 09:30 EST

Summary

In this call Ian explains that China’s aggressive and early stimulus—focused on infrastructure, housing, and consumption—is successfully offsetting export weakness and positioning its economy for stronger metals demand, while U.S. tariffs and widespread copper hoarding are straining global supply chains, potentially leaving China short of copper by mid-year as scrap flows stall and inventories draw down; he sees aluminum and zinc also entering tight supply-demand balances due to Chinese production limits and smelter issues, while nickel, lithium, and thermal coal remain oversupplied with limited near-term recovery prospects; India is emerging as a significant structural driver of metals demand, particularly in metcoal as blast furnace capacity rapidly expands; and although global risks like currency volatility, trade war escalation, and weak ex-China demand linger, Ian remains bullish on several base metals near term, expecting China’s import appetite to rise and pricing to strengthen through the second and third quarters.

Topics

China's recovery is underestimated, with stimulus boosting metals and green economy demand

US hoarding and declining scrap exports are worsening China’s copper shortages

Aluminium nears capacity limits, steel prices recover, and China’s steel exports decline

China leads in EVs and batteries, but ex-China demand weakens amid rising supply