EVENTS:   Mining the Data - What the Iran Conflict Really Means for Oil - 3-month vs. 12-month Outlook - Kathleen Kelley/Queen Anne's Gate Capital - 19 Mar 26   The Roaring 2020s or a Rerun of the 1970s? - Edward Yardeni/Yardeni Research - 24 Mar 26     ROADSHOWS: Chinese Equity Ideas & Channel Checks Across 50 sub-sectors - Don Ma /Horizon Insights   •   London   23 - 27 Mar 26       Long Short European Equity Research - Harry Grist /The Analyst   •   New York   26 Mar 26       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   27 - 27 Mar 26      

IRF Lunch - China Stimulus and Strategic Reflation Opportunities for Q4 and Beyond

PRC Macro

Dukes Hotel - 35 St James's Pl, London SW1A 1NY

Thu 24 Oct 2024 - 12:30 BST

Topics

• The unambiguous message from this Politburo meeting is that 'growth first' has returned as the Party’s top priority.

• Early meeting shows urgency to restore market confidence, opening near-term prospects.

• Expect significant bank recapitalisation and new Central Government Bonds (CGB) for economic stabilisation.

• The Politburo is committed to reversing the decline in property prices and boosting sales.

• Supply controls may lead to credit defaults but offer long-term gains as the market stabilises.

• China reflation will be one of the most important global macro trades for 2025.

• Despite buoyed sentiment on growth and reflation in Q4 and early next year, PRC see potential weakening to renewable investment and China's steel exports could become the largest downside risks base metal demand in 2025.