Summary

Paul discussed consumption and exchange rate dynamics across Japan, Taiwan, Korea and China, arguing that Japan may be near a turning point as rising per capita consumption and stronger wages support the yen, while Taiwan’s undervalued currency is set to appreciate structurally on the back of booming exports and AI-driven growth, boosting household purchasing power; Korea, though weighed down by weak wages and high debt, is evolving into a structural net saver that should stabilise the won; and China, despite avoiding a Japan-style deflation trap, will only achieve its 2035 growth ambitions if the government embraces policies to strengthen consumption, particularly through welfare and social spending reframed as investment in human capital.

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