Summary

Niall Ferguson outlined Greenmantle’s historically grounded, cross-asset approach and cited its record on early calls (COVID, post-2021 inflation, Russia’s 2022 invasion, 2023 Middle East disruption, and a 2024 Trump win). He framed the Trump era less as McKinley and more as a Nixon-style 1971 “shock”: tariffs alongside a de-facto weak-dollar tilt. With “Ferguson’s law” (US interest outlays eclipsing defense) and 6%-of-GDP deficits, he sees medium-term dollar weakness; tariffs, a blunt tool in a rewiring global network, won’t cure current-account gaps absent fiscal repair and will stay politicized and uncertain. Markets have digested year one as softer dollar/cheaper energy, but equities risk an AI reality check if hyperscaler spend outruns earnings; watch Nvidia and rising Chinese chip competition, plus power-grid cost pressures. Inflation isn’t “transitory,” in his view: tariff pass-through, tight labor, and surging data-center electricity keep it above target. Europe’s security dependence and shifting Ukraine burden constrain policy; euro strength could choke Germany’s recovery. Geopolitically, a durable China-Russia axis limits any Nixon-style triangulation; Ukraine likely grinds on, while a Taiwan conflict is not his base case. Domestically, he expects a crackdown on the radical left post-assassination but judges the risk of a non-democratic 2029 transition very low; US checks and balances and a still-independent-enough Fed should endure.

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