EVENTS:   Making Weather Pay – The Outlook For Global Commodities - James Roemer/Best Weather - 11 Feb 26     ROADSHOWS: Commodities Research with a Focus on Oil and Energy - Kathleen Kelley /Queen Anne's Gate Capital   •   London   10 - 10 Feb 26       Predictive Investment Models for Idea Generation and Risk Management - Hugh Vuillier /Variant Perception   •   New York   16 - 19 Feb 26       Geopolitics & Macro: Rates, Trade, FX, and Global Flashpoints - Dimitris Valatsas & Maximilian Hess & Dmitry Grozoubinski /Aurora Macro Strategies   •   London   23 - 24 Feb 26       L/S US Communications, Media & Software Ideas - Andrew Freedman /Hedgeye   •   Dubai   23 - 27 Feb 26      

Update on the Roaring 20s Scenario II

Yardeni Research

Thu 13 Feb 2025 - 15:00 GMT / 10:00 EST

Summary

Dr. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, explored his updated “Roaring 20s” scenario and the outlook for global markets. Yardeni argued that the US economy remains structurally stronger than its global peers, supported by resilient consumers, strong balance sheets and sustained capital investment. He highlighted productivity growth—driven by digitalisation and artificial intelligence—as a key force underpinning earnings, wage growth and economic expansion. Yardeni maintained a bullish outlook for US equities, forecasting continued earnings growth and higher equity indices, while viewing market corrections as buying opportunities. The discussion also covered risks from tariffs, geopolitics and public debt, which Yardeni currently assigns a lower probability. Overall, the call reinforced the view that technological innovation and productivity gains could define a prolonged period of economic and market strength.

Topics

Will Trump 2.0 turn out to be bullish or bearish for the economy and the stock market?

Will a productivity boom boost economic growth and suppress inflation?

Why might profit margins rise to new record highs and boost S&P 500 earnings per share to $400 by the end of the decade?

Have interest rates normalized so that the Fed might be done lowering interest rates for a while?

Will AI speed up the Digital Revolution?