Tue 30 Jun 2026 - 11:15 EDT / 16:15 BST / 17:15 CEST

Tactical vs. Structural Outlook

Tactically still constructive - "YOLO until IPO"

• But structurally bearish for the first time in a long time

• Recent IPO frenzy seen as late-cycle behaviour, not the start of a new era

The Ex-US Thesis (Strengthened Post-Iran)

• The world is relearning how much it outsourced to the US over 30 years

• Examples of dependency: Saudi Arabia's soft power gap, Australia's refining reliance, Germany's defence shortfall

• That era of dependence is ending

The CAPEX Supercycle

• Countries are now prioritising energy security, industrial capacity, defence, supply chains & strategic autonomy

• The result: massive CAPEX spending outside the US

• Marko has held this view for ~2 years - conviction has only grown

Investment Implications

• US exceptionalism is peaking

• Capital spending ex-US set to accelerate materially

• Non-US equity markets expected to outperform over the coming years (despite a painful last 6 weeks)

• Biggest bull case: China

• Continued USD weakness expected